In the US, railways are mostly seen as a means to carry freight, with the passenger rail system in a rather desolate state.

Europeans, however, have long prided themselves on high-speed long-distance passenger rail and frequent, dense commuter trains. Rail freight in Europe is often relegated to gaps in the timetable, which mostly exist at night. The limited supply of freight paths is one of the reasons why only about 16–17% of inland freight is transported by rail in the EU today, versus roughly 35–40% in the US (European Commission, Wikipedia – Rail freight transport).

But autonomous cars will collapse passenger rail traffic in Europe. Why take the train if you can just as well nap, relax, or work in your car or a robotaxi? Why choose the train if the autonomous car can pick you up at your doorstep?

Commuter rail lines extending deep into the countryside will be hit first. Long-distance high-speed services are more resilient — Paris to Lyon is still faster by train even door to door. But those kind of connections are the exception.

With the middle class shifting to autonomous cars, ticket revenue and political support for building new rail lines or subsidising regional services will erode quickly. Frequencies will be reduced and some connections will disappear entirely.

And this frees up track capacity for freight.

Commuter rail is one of the biggest consumers of track capacity on the European network during peak hours. High-frequency urban services running every 5–10 minutes in rush hour occupy slots that freight operators struggle to access. It is common for freight paths to lose out to passenger services on busy corridors. Without those passenger services, the capacity of key routes like the Rhine corridor will increase significantly.

This means lower prices, faster journeys, and improved reliability for rail freight.

Europe is smaller than the US and much more densely populated, but even reaching two thirds of the US rail freight share will imply a dramatic increase — a roughly 50% jump in rail freight volumes compared to today’s levels.

Of course, rail freight operators will be fighting their own battle against autonomous trucks. To stay competitive, they will have to invest in automated intermodal terminals and rely on governments to properly price the wear and tear created by 42-ton trucks on roads and bridges.

At least freight is more patient than humans and it does not mind waiting in a terminal. That gives rail a chance to play to its strengths in scale, weight and energy efficiency.

Either way, there is less need to invest in entirely new rail lines in Europe. Even if freight fills the gaps left by passenger services, we likely already have much of the infrastructure we need.

As a rail nerd, that is a sad conclusion. But given the choice between a crowded regional train or my own autonomous pod, I know where I will sleep better.

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